{"id":7434,"date":"2013-05-07T00:18:51","date_gmt":"2013-05-06T21:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/?p=7434"},"modified":"2022-08-28T16:35:46","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T13:35:46","slug":"turkeys-debt-ridden-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/turkeys-debt-ridden-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131l s\u00fcresince, \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck dengelilik\u2019ten \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck durgunluk\u2019a ge\u00e7ilirken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini \u201cde\u011fi\u015fken ve d\u00fczensiz hareketlenmelere maruz kalan, a\u015famal\u0131 olarak havas\u0131 azalan balon\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlamak yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. E\u011fer durum bu ise, as\u0131l sorgulamam\u0131z gereken bu spek\u00fclatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011fudur. (Ya da- okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n izniyle, daha g\u00fcnl\u00fck deyimle: Bu balonu \u015fi\u015firen gaz kayna\u011f\u0131 nedir?)<\/p>\n

Cari \u0130\u015flemler A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile Olan Ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Zay\u0131flamas\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu d\u00f6nem boyunca ay\u0131rt edici olan \u00f6zelli\u011finin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f tasarruf<\/i> (cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131)<\/i> aras\u0131ndaki (pozitif) korelasyonun neredeyse kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksek seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Belirtilmelidir ki, T\u00fcrkiye geleneksel olarak y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan bir ekonomi de\u011fildi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, verilere bak\u0131lacak olursa, 1990\u2019larda milli gelirin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 %3.6 iken, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131laya oran\u0131 1%\u2019in alt\u0131nda seyrediyordu. 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren, y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k %3-4 band\u0131na y\u00fckseldi ve 2006\u2019dan sonra %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlad\u0131. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131k azal\u0131rken, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck durgunlu\u011fa paralel olarak, -%4.8 idi. Ancak, daha sonra, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 tekrar artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Tablo 1\u2019de sunulan veriler bu geli\u015fmeleri yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"Tablo<\/a>
Tablo 1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

2006 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme elde edebilmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek (%6 \u00fcst\u00fc) cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile i\u015flemeye (hareket etmeye) ba\u015flad\u0131. 2012 bu g\u00f6zlemin netle\u015fti\u011fi y\u0131ld\u0131r. Resmi kurumlar ve uluslararas\u0131 finansal spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerinin \u2018hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u2019 senaryolar\u0131 beklentilerinin aksine, bu d\u00f6nem, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc, ucuz ithalat cenneti ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc fazlas\u0131 olan bir ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir ba\u015fka tehlike i\u015fareti ise bor\u00e7lar\u0131n finansman\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kalitesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131d\u0131r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo bu durumu \u00f6zetlemektedir:<\/p>\n

\"Tablo<\/a>
Tablo 2: Cari \u0130\u015flemler Dengesi ve Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f Finansal Ara\u00e7lar (Milyon $)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Verilerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %91\u2019i, rakamla 48.8 milyar dolar\u0131, net portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 <\/i>giri\u015fi ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi (s\u00f6zde net hata ve noksanlar<\/i>) taraf\u0131ndan finanse edilmi\u015ftir. Ancak, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131nca, 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131nda bu belirtilen ara\u00e7lar\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indeki oran\u0131 %40 civar\u0131nda idi.<\/p>\n

Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fine dayanan s\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermayenin en dalgal\u0131 formu olmakla birlikte, ayn\u0131 zamanda ani d\u00f6viz spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 en hassas olan\u0131d\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr spek\u00fclasyonlara dayal\u0131 s\u0131cak para giri\u015finden kaynaklanan sermaye giri\u015fleri, ulusal ekonominin reel sekt\u00f6rlerinde ya\u015fanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanma ve belirsizli\u011fe sebep olan ana unsurlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc Birikim<\/b><\/p>\n

2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin milli geliri, gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSY\u0130H) 742.1 milyar dolard\u0131. 52.5 milyar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli borc<\/i>un olu\u015fturdu\u011fu d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 stoku ise 241 milyar dolard\u0131. Tablo 3\u2019te sunulan veriler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel durgunluk <\/i>d\u00f6neminde (2008-2012) d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme maceras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermektedir.<\/p>\n

\"Tablo<\/a>
Tablo 3.T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

2008\u2019den 2012\u2019ye, s\u00f6zde b\u00fcy\u00fck durgunluk devresi boyunca T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 55.8 milyar dolar\u00a0net ekstra<\/i>\u00a0d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 biriktirmi\u015ftir. Yine ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem s\u00fcresince, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 44.3 dolarl\u0131k k\u00fcm\u00fclatif art\u0131\u015fla 786.4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. Bu da g\u00f6steriyor ki 2008\u2019dan sonra\u00a0d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyindeki net toplam art\u0131\u015f milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksekti.<\/i><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 tuza\u011f\u0131na iten bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme mucizesinin bir di\u011fer \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 yan\u0131 ise d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n genellikle\u00a0k\u0131sa vadeli<\/i>\u00a0yap\u0131da olmas\u0131yd\u0131. 48.4 milyar dolar olan k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 stokunun net art\u0131\u015f miktar\u0131, 48.4 milyar dolarl\u0131k genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %87\u2019sini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu konuyla ilgi ak\u0131llara tak\u0131lan bir ba\u015fka soru ise bu d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 senaryosunun hangi kurumlardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu soruya yeterli bir cevap verebilmek bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kapsam\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan derin bir analiz gerektirse de; yine de verilerden \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z genel e\u011filimler \u00fczerine yorum yapabiliriz. Resmi veriler d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmadaki 55.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k net art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 18.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc (Merkez Bankas\u0131 dahil) taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcretildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken; 37.3 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131 finansal kurulu\u015flar<\/i> kaynakl\u0131d\u0131r. 37.3 milyar dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %1.6\u2019s\u0131 finansal olmayan <\/i>kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcretilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\"Tablo
Tablo 4<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ancak, 2008 \u00f6ncesinde tam tersi bir durum s\u00f6z konusu idi. 2003-2008 d\u00f6neminde \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn biriktirdi\u011fi 100 milyar dolarl\u0131k net d\u0131\u015f borcun yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi finansal olmayan reel ekonomik sekt\u00f6rler<\/i> taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcretilmi\u015ftir. 2008\/09 krizinden itibaren, reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma \u015fekli olarak kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde azald\u0131. Bir kez daha T\u00fcrkiye, daha da \u015fiddetli bir \u015fekilde, finansal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi spek\u00fclatif dalgalanmalar\u0131n himayesi alt\u0131na girmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f borcun milli gelirden daha h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ekonomi\u2026 Son d\u00f6nemdeki kararlar\u0131, T\u00fcrkler taraf\u0131ndan milli gurur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclerek kutlanan kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki bu durumun fark\u0131ndalar. Uluslararas\u0131 politik iktisad\u0131n unsurlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 naif olunmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Bilinmelidir ki; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 i\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki yeri sadece ekonomik tercihler taraf\u0131ndan de\u011fil; kolektif emperyalizmin siyasi tercihleri taraf\u0131ndan da belirlenmektedir. \u2018Ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131\u2019 efsaneleri siyasi unsurlarla \u015fi\u015firilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Profes\u00f6r Erin\u00e7 Yeldan, Dekan, \u0130ktisadi ve \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi, Ya\u015far \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130zmir<\/b>
\nMakaleyi \u015fu \u015fekilde referans vererek kullanabilirsiniz:<\/span>
\nYeldan, Erin\u00e7 (May\u0131s, 2013), \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi\u201d, Cilt II, Say\u0131 3, s.20-22,\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye Politika ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi (AnalizT\u00fcrkiye), Londra: AnalizT\u00fcrkiye<\/em>(http:\/\/researchturkey.org\/dev\/?p=3176&lang=tr)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bor\u00e7 G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131l s\u00fcresince, \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck dengelilik\u2019ten \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck durgunluk\u2019a ge\u00e7ilirken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini \u201cde\u011fi\u015fken ve d\u00fczensiz hareketlenmelere maruz kalan, a\u015famal\u0131 olarak havas\u0131 azalan balon\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlamak yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. E\u011fer durum bu ise, as\u0131l sorgulamam\u0131z gereken bu spek\u00fclatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011fudur. (Ya da- okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n izniyle, daha g\u00fcnl\u00fck deyimle: Bu balonu \u015fi\u015firen gaz kayna\u011f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":221,"featured_media":9490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[214,280],"tags":[207,209],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7434"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/221"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7434"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9501,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7434\/revisions\/9501"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}