{"id":7442,"date":"2013-04-14T23:29:21","date_gmt":"2013-04-14T20:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/?p=7442"},"modified":"2022-06-06T16:00:30","modified_gmt":"2022-06-06T13:00:30","slug":"two-tales-in-post-crisis-adjustment-argentina-and-turkey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.researchturkey.org\/tr\/two-tales-in-post-crisis-adjustment-argentina-and-turkey\/","title":{"rendered":"Kriz Sonras\u0131 Toparlanma S\u00fcrecinin \u0130ki \u00d6yk\u00fcs\u00fc: Arjantin ve T\u00fcrkiye"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Kriz Sonras\u0131 Toparlanma S\u00fcrecinin \u0130ki \u00d6yk\u00fcs\u00fc:
\nArjantin ve T\u00fcrkiye<\/h2>\n

Giri\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130ki Latin Amerika tarz\u0131<\/i> ekonomi, Arjantin ve T\u00fcrkiye, yak\u0131n zamana dek benzer bir tarihi payla\u015ft\u0131lar. Bu \u201cbenzerlik\u201d, uzun s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f bir ithalat ikameci sanayile\u015fme (\u0130\u0130S) tarihi ile i\u00e7e d\u00f6n\u00fck ve devlet taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen kalk\u0131nma yollar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. \u0130ki ekonomi de kendi ithalat ikameci sanayile\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 elde ederken 1970lerde bu yolla elde edilecek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 fark ettiler. (Arjantin bunu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den belki be\u015f y\u0131l \u00f6nce fark etti.)<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca iki \u00fclke de kay\u0131p bir on y\u0131l<\/i> ya\u015fad\u0131lar; Arjantin 1980lerde, T\u00fcrkiye ise 1990larda. \u0130ki \u00fclke i\u00e7in de sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nem canl\u0131 bir reform d\u00f6nemiydi. \u0130ki \u00fclke de IMF \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki d\u00f6viz kuru sabitlenmesi maceras\u0131na dayanan deflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 takip ederken, 2001\u2019de neredeyse birebir benzer finansal krizler ya\u015fad\u0131lar. Azalan gayri safi yurti\u00e7i h\u00e2s\u0131la ve ani d\u00f6viz kuru de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelerinin y\u00fck\u00fc, banka iflaslar\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin ciddi \u015fekilde art\u0131\u015f\u0131 iki \u00fclkede de kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir boyutlardayd\u0131. Ancak iki \u00fclke de bundan sonra de\u011fi\u015fik toparlanma s\u00fcre\u00e7leri takip ettiler: T\u00fcrkiye IMF\u2019nin g\u00f6zetimi alt\u0131nda kat\u0131 ve al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f bir toparlanma program\u0131n\u0131 takip ederken, Arjantin iflas etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yoksulluk kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ve i\u015f kazand\u0131rma odakl\u0131, ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 tabir edilen bir toparlanma s\u00fcrecini tercih etmek suretiyle kendi yolunu \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n

Bu farkl\u0131la\u015fmadan neredeyse on y\u0131l sonras\u0131nda, New York federal b\u00f6lge mahkemesinin Arjantin h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u201cakbaba fonu\u201d Elliott Capital Management\u2019a 1,3 milyar dolar \u00f6demesi gerekti\u011fiyle ilgili karar\u0131yla birlikte, Arjantin bir kez daha uluslararas\u0131 bas\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. Kararda ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u015fah\u0131slar\u0131n Arjantin\u2019in borcunu yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131na yard\u0131m\u0131 yasaklayan bir beyan da yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Neden \u015fimdi?<\/b><\/p>\n

Ghosh and Vernengo[1]<\/a>, ba\u015fka sebeplerin yan\u0131nda, ana sebebi \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorlar: Arjantin \u00f6rne\u011fi iflastan sonra da bir hayat oldu\u011funu ve kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n krizden \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in en iyi yol olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/i><\/p>\n

Kriz Sonras\u0131 Makroekonomik Kan\u0131tlar<\/b><\/p>\n

2001 krizini takip eden g\u00fcnlerde, Arjantin iflas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131p bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemeyece\u011fini belirterek, i\u015f yaratma yanl\u0131s\u0131 ve yoksulluk kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 olan al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k bir kriz sonras\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ise tam tersine kriz sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde neoliberal kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 takip etti: y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sermaye giri\u015fini sa\u011flad\u0131, d\u00f6vizin g\u00f6receli \u00e7oklu\u011fu yerel para birimi Lira<\/i>\u2019n\u0131n reel olarak de\u011ferlenmesine sebep oldu. Ucuz d\u00f6viz kuru hem t\u00fcketimde hem de yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131nda ithalat patlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde sonu\u00e7larsa spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn daralmas\u0131 ile bunu takiben, acilen kamusal fonlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyan e\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi oldu. Ayr\u0131ca, yerel sanayi, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a yerel i\u015fsizlik seviyesi \u00fczerinde zararl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olan sermaye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yabanc\u0131 teknolojilere kendini uyarlamak zorunda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kriz sonras\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015fan makroekonomik g\u00f6stergeler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki Tablo1\u2019de yer al\u0131yor. E\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131klara g\u00f6z atacak olursak:<\/p>\n